PDA

View Full Version : The One I Want To Find


dvn
04-24-2008, 11:26 AM
We all have our own stories and I wanted to share this true story with you. It is The One Variety I Want To Find -- but, to date, no joy in Mudville yet.

The ONE VARIETY that totally eludes me in finding is the 1996 1c CDDO-001. It is not a major DDO, but it is no slouch either. It is easily visible on WE TRUST and especially very prominent notching and separation can be seen on the date from a Class V pivoted hub doubling. Currently, only a few are known to exist. I have seen one specimen that was ANACS slabbed MS-66/Red and the collector told me he was offered a grand for it and that he told the person, nicely of course, where to stuff it.

Anyway, this variety was originally discovered back in the summer of 1996 by Richard Imburgia who lives in NY. I have not talked with him in a couple of years, but the last I know he had found 4 specimens through his years of searching. He sent the discovery coin to me in the summer of '96 and I first reported it in the old, long-defunct, Society of Doubled Die Collectors of America (SDDCA) "Double Talk" newsletter that was mailed bi-monthly to members of the club. The variety was also subsequently published by me in Numismatic News in December of 1996.

I keep stats of what I search. Not per se to the nth degree, but still rather detailed stats. Since we are talking about my ONE variety being a 1996 Lincoln cent, then we have over 10 years worth of searching. I average a little over $10 worth of cents searched every day. Yes, some days a whole lot more (I can easily do over $50 in a day, and some days less or none) -- but, overall, that is my average. So, lets make it simple and go with $10 on the nose per day. Therefore, I have searched at least so far $36,500 worth of cents over the past 10 years.

Today, my stats show I average 2.72 coins dated 1996 per roll of circulated cents. Looking through my stats as we go back in time and getting closer to 1996 the average increases per roll. That is perfectly normal as we get closer to 1996 and when we go away from 1996 more and more other dated coins are mixed into circulation along with normal attrition. Putting it all together, the average now comes out to around 6 coins per roll searched that are dated 1996 through the 10 years to present time. So, lets go with 6 coins dated 1996 per roll.

With $36,500 worth of cents searched over a 10 year period we have 73,000 rolls. With each roll averaging over the years 6 coins dated 1996 we now have 438,000 coins. All being dated 1996. Or that would be $4,380 worth of 1996 Lincoln cents. That also would be equivalent to just over 175 twenty-five dollar boxes with every single coin being a 1996 Lincoln cent!

For the year 1996-P Lincoln cent the U.S. Mint produced 6,612,465,000. The average die life is around a million coins per working die. Yes, some are more and some are a whole lot less. But, lets give it the benefit of doubt and go with a lower die life. Lets use 500,000 coins struck per working die. So, for the year 1996 the U.S. Mint had to have at least (I'm sure they made more) a hair over 13,224 obverse working dies.

Since I have at least been through 438,000 coins (this would be a bare minimum) all being dated 1996 compared to the 13,224 obverse working dies and have NOT yet come across the one particular obverse die for the 1996 DDO I want to find -- then OBVIOUSLY, I am seeing a ton of dupes!!!

One would think that out of 438,000 coins with each and every coin being dated 1996 that I would at least come across one specimen of the variety. Even if it was a road kill, dog of a coin. BUT NO -- not one yet!

This tells me that varieties are INDEED extremely difficult to locate!

I believe that when one knows his stuff in varieties and has the right equipment -- then what is left is nothing but 100% totally luck. When I say luck I mean it boils down to being at the right place at the right time to come across that one particular variety one is looking for. Of course, I stress again, I search for anything and everything, I search for ALL varieties. But, that ONE VARIETY has yet to fall under my stereoscope.

One of the biggest laws in keeping stats is this -- it is the law of averages. Obviously, I have not yet reached the law of average for finding that particular variety for my particular geographical area.

What is interesting, at least it's interesting to me, is all the above can be applied to any variety we are looking for.

Now, to add insult to injury -- back in the summer of 1996 I also discovered a 1996 Lincoln cent DDO. It is listed in my files as 1996 1c CDDO-002. It is a nice DDO, but nothing compared to the CDDO-001 that I want to find. I found this CDDO-002 variety out of sealed $25 boxes of solid BU rolls of 1996 cents. I found over 6 tubes of them out of 2 boxes. The bank, which was only 3 miles from me, (BofA branch) had a bunch more of these boxes. I didn't need anymore. I eventually sold the 6 tubes to a dealer/collector in Virginia.

OK, so what's my point in comparing this CDDO-002 to the CDDO-001 that I want to find? Here it is, get this -- I have never come across the 1996 1c CDDO-002 out of circulation either!!!! AND IT WAS RELEASED IN MY OWN BACKYARD!!!

Now, figure that one out?

Have a great day.... and keep on searching. After all, the very next coin I look at might be the ONE VARIETY I'm looking for -- one can only hope.

Share your stories of searching.

Billy

brefos77
04-24-2008, 12:25 PM
You're not looking hard enough...:LOL_Hair:

Good luck in your search!

dvn
04-24-2008, 12:33 PM
You're not looking hard enough...:LOL_Hair:

Good luck in your search!

Your right!!! I'm heading to the bank to get more rolls to search :angel:

After all, that's why it's called the thrill of the hunt!!!

Brad
04-24-2008, 02:03 PM
You need to be a member of the "Lincoln Cent Junkies".

AgCollector
04-24-2008, 02:36 PM
Fascinating story and a great discussion of the factors controlling how varieties are distributed. Thanks!

Wheat Cents
04-24-2008, 03:39 PM
... keep on searching. After all, the very next coin I look at might be the ONE VARIETY I'm looking for -- one can only hope. Share your stories of searching. Billy

Along the way on the quest for the elusive 1996 dramatic Class V DDO, another was found. Great Story! And lesson can be learned. When searching rolls learn the pick up points for not so dramatic DDOs. Because while you are looking for the big one you may be passing up many little ones. And there are many.

Here are few subtle DDOs (memorials) found in rolls.

DWK
04-24-2008, 09:59 PM
Great story.

I also do about $10.00 per day. (Cust rolls mostly).

I didn't even know I should be looking for 1996 DDO. I wonder how many I have missed.:D Oh well, another one to look at closer and slow me down.:angel:

Dave Kearns

snowman
04-25-2008, 05:38 AM
Billy - do you have a pic of the 1996 because it helps me memorize what i'm looking for

what part of NY is Richard Imburgia from because location helps alot because I'm near Syracuse

dvn
04-25-2008, 08:18 AM
Billy - do you have a pic of the 1996 because it helps me memorize what i'm looking for

what part of NY is Richard Imburgia from because location helps alot because I'm near Syracuse

Give me a little while and I'll round up some photos.

In answer to your other question -- Rochester.

Billy

dvn
04-25-2008, 09:07 AM
The 4 color photos are of the 1996 1c CDDO-001 (the one I really want to find).

The bottom 2 B/W photos are of the 1996 1c CDDO-002 which I mentioned that I discovered while trying to find the CDDO-001. All in all, it's still a nice DDO but obviously not as strong on the date as the Die#1.

http://home.sc.rr.com/dievarieties/photo1.jpg
http://home.sc.rr.com/dievarieties/photo2.jpg
http://home.sc.rr.com/dievarieties/photo3.jpg
http://home.sc.rr.com/dievarieties/photo4.jpg

http://home.sc.rr.com/dievarieties/photo5.jpg
http://home.sc.rr.com/dievarieties/photo6.jpg

THE PENNY MAN
04-25-2008, 09:35 AM
Very nice story this one ELUDES me also in all of the cents i looked at. I been wanting this for s longtime. How much is die 2? and would you want to trade for one so i could add to my collection, i do not have one of them.

Patrick

dvn
04-25-2008, 04:02 PM
Very nice story this one ELUDES me also in all of the cents i looked at. I been wanting this for s longtime. How much is die 2? and would you want to trade for one so i could add to my collection, i do not have one of them.

Patrick

Sorry, I sold all the Die #2.

Billy